Evaluation of Future Sediment Yield and Sediment Retention Capacity with InVEST Model under Climate Change Scenarios in Yeşilırmak Basin

Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause more severe environmental problems, including soil erosion. This study aims to examine the effects of climate change on the sediment yield and sediment retention capacity through soil erosion in the Yeşilırmak Basin with the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model Version III) general circulation model were used to examine the effects of climate change on soil erosion. Decreases in the sediment yield and sediment retention rates of Yeşilırmak Basin were projected up to 9.48% and 12.47% in 2070, respectively. The main reason for the decrease in soil erosion rates is the decrease in rainfall erosivity resulting from the decrease in precipitation amounts, and the effect of this decrease is predicted to have a positive impact on wetland systems and agricultural lands. In addition, this research points to the advantages of the InVEST model approach in spatial and temporal estimation of the possible effects of future climate change on soil erosion.