Analysis of Red Meat Prices with Garch Method: The Case of Turkey

Authors

  • Merve Ayyıldız Bozok University
  • Adnan Çiçek Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Ziraat Fakültesi, Tarım Ekonomisi Bölümü, 60240 Tokat

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v6i12.1775-1780.2095

Keywords:

Price volatility, GARCH Analysis, Veal, Turkey, Time series

Abstract

Approximately 90% of the red meat consumption in Turkey is the beef. On the basis of consumption, beef is mostly equated with veal and therefore the price of veal is widely used in price evaluations. It is known that the change in veal prices is a very effective factor on consumption. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the fluctuations in veal prices. GARCH (1,1) model was used to determine the price uncertainty in the period between January 2005 and December 2017. According to the model results, veal prices reacted with big jumps to any shock such as economic and political instability, food crisis, natural events. It was determined that the price of veal meat could return to normal for a long time period according to the average price. In the study, foreign trade policies towards gaining a stable structure of red meat prices in Turkey should not be ignored. However, it has been concluded that policies supporting bovine supply should be developed as a complement to supply policies for cattle breeding.

Author Biographies

Merve Ayyıldız, Bozok University

Tarım Ekonomisi Bölümü/ Dr. Öğretim Üyesi

Adnan Çiçek, Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Ziraat Fakültesi, Tarım Ekonomisi Bölümü, 60240 Tokat

TARIM EKONOMİSİ BÖLÜMÜ/PROF.DR.

Published

17.12.2018

How to Cite

Ayyıldız, M., & Çiçek, A. (2018). Analysis of Red Meat Prices with Garch Method: The Case of Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 6(12), 1775–1780. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v6i12.1775-1780.2095

Issue

Section

Research Paper